The Black Sea is no longer simply a quiet body of water separating Russia, Ukraine, and NATO’s eastern flank. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, this vital maritime expanse has fundamentally transformed into one of Europe’s most consequential and volatile security arenas. Today, traditional military power, global commercial shipping, critical energy security, fragile food supplies, international maritime law, and emerging technologies all converge within its waters, creating an intricate web of geopolitical challenges and strategic imperatives.
For Türkiye, this regional transformation carries profound significance. Ankara controls the vital Turkish Straits, remains strictly bound by the legal and administrative restrictions of the Montreux Convention, acts as a pivotal NATO member, and simultaneously maintains constructive working relations with both Moscow and Kyiv. Very few nations in the modern geopolitical landscape possess this unique combination of strategic geography, legal authority, and diplomatic access. Consequently, this multi-faceted position grants Türkiye far more than a mere national stake in the Black Sea; it endows Ankara with both a historic opportunity and a heavy responsibility to help shape the overarching security order that will eventually emerge from the devastation of the war.
New Security Environment
Perhaps the most radical and enduring change in the region is the total transformation of maritime warfare itself. Throughout the conflict, Ukraine has effectively utilized unmanned surface vessels, long-range precision missiles, aerial drones, and satellite-enabled reconnaissance to challenge a much stronger, traditional naval force. This asymmetric approach has decisively proven that a nation no longer requires a conventional blue-water navy to successfully deter, disrupt, and contest a superior adversary on the open sea.
Consequently, the Black Sea has effectively become a live-fire testing ground for a completely new model of modern warfare, where relatively inexpensive unmanned systems can systematically threaten heavily armed warships, fortified naval ports, and vital commercial shipping lanes. The reported 2025 attacks on the commercial tankers Kairos and Virat dramatically highlighted yet another dangerous dimension of this evolving problem. Their reported association with Russia’s so-called "shadow fleet" and their active presence within Türkiye’s exclusive economic zone brought the direct, physical consequences of the ongoing war dangerously close to Turkish territorial waters.
The operational lesson for regional planners and international observers is glaringly clear: modern maritime security can no longer be understood simply in terms of traditional warships, heavy artillery, and officially defined territorial waters. Effective defense and stability now demand the integration of unmanned systems, comprehensive maritime domain awareness, active protection of commercial shipping, and robust defense of critical underwater infrastructure.
In response to these mounting pressures, Türkiye has carefully navigated the crisis through a measured and disciplined balancing policy. Ankara has consistently voiced unwavering support for Ukraine’s internationally recognized sovereignty and territorial integrity, while simultaneously keeping diplomatic and economic channels open with Russia. By doing so, Türkiye has extended vital political and humanitarian support to Kyiv without formally becoming a direct party to the armed conflict, all while preserving essential lines of communication with Moscow.
This diplomatic tightrope walk has afforded Türkiye a degree of leverage that few other international actors possess. However, Ankara’s strategic role must ultimately extend far beyond merely managing a difficult political balance. Türkiye is uniquely situated to leverage this diplomatic capital to promote practical, enforceable rules and multilateral mechanisms that can render the Black Sea safer, more predictable, and less prone to catastrophic escalation.
At the very center of this stabilizing approach remains the Montreux Convention of 1936. The historic convention strictly regulates maritime passage through the Turkish Straits and places crucial, legally binding restrictions on the movement of warships during times of war. The profound strategic importance of this legal framework has become even more apparent since the onset of Russia’s invasion. Türkiye’s meticulous and impartial implementation of the Montreux Convention has effectively limited the ability of the direct warring parties to reinforce their active naval presence in the basin, while simultaneously preventing non-Black Sea global powers from flooding the region with unlimited naval forces.
The convention thus remains an absolute pillar of regional stability. Its 90th anniversary in 2026 served as a timely reminder of its enduring legal and strategic significance in an increasingly disordered world. Therefore, Türkiye’s primary objective should never be to replace or undermine the Montreux Convention, but rather to build strategically upon the stability it has provided for nearly a century. Any emerging maritime security arrangements in the post-war era must reinforce, rather than erode, this foundational legal architecture.
The war has permanently altered the very definition of modern naval power. With unmanned surface and underwater vehicles, precision strike weapons, sophisticated electronic warfare, and advanced surveillance dominating the theater, traditional measures of fleet strength are rapidly becoming obsolete. A navy’s true operational effectiveness can no longer be judged simply by counting the number of frigates, submarines, or corvettes flying its flag. Instead, the capacity to detect asymmetric threats, process vast streams of battlefield information, deploy unmanned platforms seamlessly, and deliver precise strikes has become equally, if not more, critical.
In this context, Türkiye’s ambitious naval modernization programs—including the indigenous MILGEM project, the advanced Reis-class submarines, the MILDEN national submarine development program, the modern TF-2000 destroyer project, and the MUGEM aircraft carrier concept—must be viewed as part of this wider technological and tactical transformation. Future naval dominance will increasingly rely on integrated, networked architectures combining manned assets with autonomous systems. For Ankara, mastering this transition is simultaneously an urgent defense requirement and a massive strategic opportunity.
Beyond the Battlefield
Beyond surface combat and naval strategy, the ongoing conflict has exposed a critical, often overlooked vulnerability: underwater infrastructure. Submarine communication cables, international energy pipelines, offshore facilities, and other vital economic assets are absolutely essential to the functioning of modern economies, yet they remain exceptionally difficult to continuously monitor, patrol, and protect against sabotage or collateral damage.
An encouraging example of pragmatic regional cooperation in the face of adversity is the Black Sea Mine Countermeasures Task Group, jointly established by Türkiye, Romania, and Bulgaria. The formal activation of this initiative under Turkish command in June 2026 powerfully demonstrated that practical security cooperation among littoral states remains entirely possible, even amidst severe geopolitical tensions and active warfare. Such cooperative frameworks should not be limited to mine clearance alone; they can and should be expanded to encompass broader maritime domain awareness, joint protection of critical underwater infrastructure, synchronized search and rescue operations, and transparent crisis communication channels.
The strategic weight of the Black Sea extends far beyond traditional military affairs and defense considerations. The historic Black Sea Grain Initiative starkly demonstrated how directly regional security impacts global food markets and international price stability. Before the arrangement ultimately expired in July 2023, approximately 33 million tons of vital agricultural products successfully reached international markets, staving off severe food insecurity in developing nations. More recent military strikes targeting port infrastructure around Novorossiysk have once again laid bare the immense vulnerability of global commercial supply chains. Physical damage to major export terminals can drastically throttle trade capacity, even when the actual combat takes place far away from the ultimate consumer markets.
For Türkiye, safeguarding the Black Sea therefore means adopting a holistic approach that protects not only naval vessels and coastlines, but also the vital commercial shipping routes and logistical infrastructure that connect regional producers to the rest of the world. This points directly to the urgent necessity of establishing a durable, comprehensive maritime security framework. Such a framework should comprehensively cover commercial navigation safety, systematic mine clearance operations, the regulation of unmanned systems, the physical defense of underwater cables and energy routes, and proactive crisis prevention mechanisms.
Crucially, this architecture does not need to manifest as another rigid military alliance. Instead, it could be built upon pragmatic, functional cooperation among all Black Sea littoral states, firmly anchored in international law and specifically engineered to minimize the risk of accidental escalation or miscalculation.
Shaping the Post-War Black Sea
The profound security consequences of this devastating war will not vanish the moment the active fighting eventually ceases. Thousands of sea mines will need to be meticulously cleared from shipping lanes. Autonomous and unmanned weapons will permanently remain a core component of regional military equations. Critical underwater infrastructure will demand continuous, high-tech protection measures. The fundamental balance of naval power will have shifted permanently, and commercial navigation will require highly reliable, trusted security guarantees.
Consequently, the most pressing question facing regional capitals is not merely who wins the war, but rather what specific kind of Black Sea emerges in its aftermath. A permanently militarized, deeply divided, and tense Black Sea would generate profound, long-term security risks for Türkiye. Conversely, a more predictable, cooperative maritime environment—bolstered by regional solidarity and international law—would far better protect Türkiye’s vital national security, economic prosperity, and energy interests.
Türkiye is uniquely positioned by geography and diplomacy to heavily influence which of these futures ultimately materializes. Its geopolitical location at the crossroads of continents cannot be replicated by any other state. Its legal authority under the Montreux Convention cannot easily be substituted. Furthermore, its proud membership in the NATO alliance provides direct access to a robust, wider security network, while its independent, working relations with both Moscow and Kyiv afford it diplomatic channels that are simply unavailable to most international actors. These distinct advantages should form the solid bedrock of a comprehensive, forward-looking Turkish strategy for the Black Sea.
The ultimate objective of this strategy should never be to unilaterally dominate the region. Rather, it must be to help forge a stable, balanced security environment where Türkiye’s core national interests—uncompromised territorial security, absolute freedom of navigation, guaranteed energy security, unhindered commercial trade, and enduring regional stability—are fully safeguarded.
The Black Sea has irrevocably entered a new, turbulent historical era. The war has permanently altered the regional balance of power, revolutionized the very nature of naval warfare, and brutally exposed the fragility of commercial and underwater infrastructure. The next critical stage will determine whether these sweeping changes result in permanent instability or pave the way for a stable new regional security order. In this high-stakes environment, Türkiye cannot afford to remain a passive observer.
The Black Sea is directly and inextricably connected to Türkiye’s national security, economic vitality, and independent foreign policy. Ankara therefore possesses both the unique opportunity and the unavoidable responsibility to help define the governing rules of the next Black Sea era. The war may eventually draw to a close, but the broader strategic struggle over the future architecture of the Black Sea has already begun, and Türkiye stands uniquely positioned to shape its ultimate outcome.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance, values, or position of Daily Sabah. The newspaper provides space for diverse perspectives as part of its commitment to open and informed public discussion.